What the 2026 “Super” El Niño Means For Montana’s Winter

If you've watched a weather forecast lately, you may have heard the phrase "Super El Niño" getting tossed around. No, it's not a character in an upcoming Marvel movie. Here's why it's something you should pay attention to, especially if you live in Montana.

According to an update from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, El Niño has already developed in the tropical Pacific, and they're expected to strengthen this fall. Experts are predicting a "very strong" El Niño from October-December.

What Does the "Super" El Niño Mean For Montana's Winter Weather

If you're curious about the impact it will have in Montana, here's a break down that's makes it easy to understand. A strong El Niño tends to push the Pacific Jet stream further north in the Northern Rockies, and that usually leads to above-average temperatures, and that less frigid Arctic air will move into Big Sky Country.

Don't get me wrong, it will still be cold, but not for weeks, just a few cold snaps here and there.

How Will It Affect Snowpack in Montana?

Unfortunately, Montana is in the "suppressed precipitation" zone. The El Niño will limit moisture-heavy storms, and that means below-average snowfall. For ski areas from Big Sky to Whitefish, snow-making will most likely be needed, at least early in the season.

Winter weather in Montana can be unpredictable, and you can still expect a few whiteout blizzards. Let's hope that the meteorologists and weather forecasters are wrong, because we need as much snow as we can get.

On the other hand, I'm not mad about fewer days with below zero temperatures.